Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München
0 - 2
- 91'AYellow card - Josip Stanišić
- 89'ASubstitution - Sacha Boey · for Konrad Laimer
- 79'ASubstitution - Kim Min-Jae · for Alphonso Davies
- 79'HYellow card - Giuliano Simeone Baldini
- 75'HSubstitution - Rodrigo Mendoza · for Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 75'HSubstitution - Jonathan David · for Julián Álvarez
- 74'AGoal - Konrad Laimer · Assist: Harry Kane
- 68'ASubstitution - Nathaniel Brown · for Lennart Karl
- 59'HSubstitution - Lee Kang-In · for Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
- 59'HSubstitution - Koke · for Robin Le Normand
- 59'HSubstitution - Ademola Lookman · for Alexander Sørloth
- 56'AYellow card - Joshua Kimmich
- 54'AGoal - Lennart Karl
- 2
- Shots on target
- 5
- 8
- Shots
- 19
- 4
- Corners
- 4
- 41
- Possession %
- 59
Depleted Bayern attack faces Atletico's home wall - lean towards Bayern held under three
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceWonTeam GoalsBayern München Under 2.5 Goals@ 1.29Suggested stake: 2 units · 1 unit = 1% of your betting bank
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Bayern sit 14th in the league phase on 5 points and have scored in every CL game, but recent scorelines show their defence leaking too: 2-2 with Dortmund, 2-2 with Arsenal and 3-3 at Viking. They arrive without Díaz, Musiala, Gnabry, Saibari and Neuer. Olise and back-up keeper Urbig are doubtful, and interim coach Aaron Danks stands in for the ill Kompany.
Atletico are 16th on 4 points but have won eight of their last ten in all competitions, including clean-sheet wins over Man United (2-0), Levante (2-0) and Deportivo (1-0). They have conceded none at home in this CL campaign and under one per home game over the last year. Missing Koke, Hjulmand and Cardoso leaves the midfield thin, but Oblak and the regular back line are available, and the market rates this close to an even contest with Bayern only slight favourites.
The lean is Bayern held to two or fewer, built on Atletico's home defensive record and a Bayern front line stripped of four attackers. It is Medium rather than High because Bayern scored three or more in seven of their last ten, Olise may yet play, and line-ups are unconfirmed. It is not lower because the sharp market and our model both put this outcome clearly above two-in-three.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (288 matches): 3.38 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 63%, both teams scored in 57%, 9.6 corners, 4.0 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. Tipstrel does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
Related articles
All articles →
Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München Prediction and Preview
Our Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München preview covers form, head-to-head, team news and goal trends ahead of the Champions League tie on Tuesday 3 November at 20:00 UK time.
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United preview
Atletico Madrid welcome Manchester United for Champions League Matchday 2. Recent form and contrasting opening results set the scene for Tuesday’s meeting.
Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis Prediction and Match Preview
Dortmund host Real Betis in a Champions League Matchday 4 meeting. We look at form, team news and the numbers behind a tie between two sides unbeaten in the league phase.
Recommended predictions
The strongest picks we have published for the coming matches.
Universitatea Craiovavs
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
FC Luganovs
Kauno ŽalgirisWhy bettors use Tipstrel
Every pick is timestamped at least 12 hours before the match and never edited afterwards.
Wins and losses are settled automatically from the final score and stay public.
Form, league table, season statistics, injuries and line-ups for each match.
Bookmaker prices are the baseline - we look for concrete reasons to side with or against them.
Selections are written in full, exactly as they appear on a betting slip.
No pick is forced onto a fixture - where the data is thin we publish nothing.