- 90'HGoal - Samuel Aghehowa · Penalty
- 88'ARed card - Rafael Marin Zamora
- 81'ASubstitution - Lorenzo Lucca · for Matteo Politano
- 80'HGoal - Jakub Kiwior · Assist: Hwang In-Beom
- 78'ASubstitution - Giovane Santana Do Nascimento · for Antonio Vergara
- 78'ASubstitution - Noa Lang · for Frank Anguissa
- 78'HSubstitution - Seko Fofana · for Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa
- 78'HSubstitution - Hwang In-Beom · for Gabri Veiga
- 71'HGoal - Gabri Veiga · Assist: Santiago Giménez
- 67'HSubstitution - Santiago Giménez · for Borja Sainz
- 67'HSubstitution - Zaidu Sanusi · for Martim Fernandes
- 56'HSubstitution - Samuel Aghehowa · for André Silva
- 47'HYellow card - Gabri Veiga
- 43'AGoal - Scott McTominay
- 36'AYellow card - Scott McTominay
- 35'AYellow card - Amir Rrahmani
- 21'AYellow card - Frank Anguissa
- 11'HGoal - Jan Bednarek · Assist: Gabri Veiga
- 1'AYellow card - Antonio Vergara
- 8
- Shots on target
- 6
- 19
- Shots
- 11
- 6
- Corners
- 5
- 52
- Possession %
- 48
Porto v Napoli: depleted Napoli lean towards a low-scoring night in Porto
Our pick
odds are estimates- Medium confidenceWonTeam GoalsNapoli Under 1.5 Goals@ 1.36Suggested stake: 1 unit · 1 unit = 1% of your betting bank
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Porto are 34th in the league phase with no points after home defeats to Manchester City (0-2) and PSV (0-1). At home over the last year they have conceded just 0.54 goals per game and allowed about 2.8 shots on target. Their domestic run includes a 4-0 win over Estoril and a 3-1 win over Benfica.
Napoli arrive 22nd on 3 points with a long absence list: Lobotka, Neres, Di Lorenzo, Olivera and Spinazzola are out, and De Bruyne and Hojlund are doubtful. Away from home they have averaged around 1.26 goals and drawn a blank in roughly three games in ten over the past year. The market rates Porto as clear favourites.
We lean Napoli to score once or not at all. The sharp market, our model and Porto's home defensive record all point the same way, and Napoli's creative core is thinned. It is Medium rather than High because line-ups are still provisional and Napoli have been involved in several open, high-scoring games recently. It is not Low because three independent strands of the data agree.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (288 matches): 3.38 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 63%, both teams scored in 57%, 9.6 corners, 4.0 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. Tipstrel does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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