- 98'HRed card - Jacob Ramsey
- 96'HYellow card - Jacob Ramsey
- 92'ASubstitution - Hayden Hackney · for Tyrique George
- 87'HSubstitution - Bazoumana Touré · for Amar Dedić
- 82'ASubstitution - Michael Keane · for Jarrad Branthwaite
- 80'ASubstitution - Brennan Johnson · for Thierno Barry
- 76'HSubstitution - Jacob Murphy · for Anthony Elanga
- 75'HSubstitution - Jacob Ramsey · for Joelinton
- 73'AYellow card - David William Moyes
- 64'HSubstitution - Yoane Wissa · for Joe Willock
- 64'HSubstitution - Sean Steur · for Nico González
- 52'AYellow card - Tyrique George
- 49'AGoal - Thierno Barry
- 32'HYellow card - Dan Burn
- 2
- Shots on target
- 5
- 17
- Shots
- 16
- 4
- Corners
- 5
- 52
- Possession %
- 48
Newcastle vs Everton: Newcastle's scoring ceiling looks capped
Our pick
odds are estimates- High confidenceWonTeam GoalsNewcastle Under 2.5 Goals@ 1.25Suggested stake: 2 units · 1 unit = 1% of your betting bank
Selections are named as on a bookmaker's slip, so they are easy to find. Add one to your ticket to keep it with the rest of your picks and see how it settles.
Full analysis
Newcastle have scored three or more in only one of their last 10 games: 1-3 at Everton, 2-0 at Crystal Palace, 0-1 against Aston Villa and 1-4 at Coventry are typical. Sky Sports also lists their expected-goals supremacy as third-worst in the division. Everton concede just 1.05 per away game and allow around 4 shots on target on the road.
Team news points the same way. Newcastle striker Will Osula (ankle) and Fernandez-Pardo (illness) are doubtful, Lewis Miley is questionable and Livramento is out. Everton expect Jarrad Branthwaite back in central defence. The market sees a fairly even contest, with neither side strongly rated, which leans against a home goal flood.
The confidence is High because Newcastle's own scoring record, Everton's away defence, the sharp market and our model all agree on this line. It is not higher because Newcastle average almost two goals per home game this season and recent meetings have been open, so a three-goal home haul remains a real outcome. Line-ups are not yet confirmed either.
The numbers behind it
This competition over the last 12 months (370 matches): 2.76 goals a game, over 2.5 goals in 53%, both teams scored in 55%, 9.9 corners, 4.2 cards a game.
This prediction expresses statistical probability, not certainty. Odds shown are an estimate for illustration only, not a live bookmaker price. Tipstrel does not accept bets. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.
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